A decade following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in academia but scarcely any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the basics. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They composes two pieces that aim for objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions cover national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "One side will win here and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has got something to gain from the other's positions."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster should engage with the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
