Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: optimistic declarations are released from multiple capitals. Immense energy is devoted on restraining certain initiatives. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from across the border, a capability enabled by current data. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to engage hostile guided weapons streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: defensive missiles targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably provided by Western nations. Every firing shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly gives way to sober acceptance: possibly the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from ruin and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a automatic firearm opened up on a drone somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its objective.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: several casualties, destruction and heating outages in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a dependence that regional partners are evidently unprepared to replace in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from US administration provoked deep reactions, debate and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new initiative from US leadership unfolds according to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, certainly, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership works based on a assumption familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration believes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does nothing to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from believing that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its favour in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing civilians and areas but avoiding a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: personal goals to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to kill the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new proposals based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate certain reluctance to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
